Recessions are threatening to crash over the world economy in waves, as one country after another turns down a year after the onset of the global credit crisis.
Such rolling recessions pose a quandary for central bankers Ben S. Bernanke, Jean-Claude Trichet and Mervyn King: If the whole world were clearly slumping, they'd be united in cutting interest rates. Instead, with some countries still booming, they can't ignore the inflation threat. Paralyzed between slowing growth and accelerating prices, U.S. and European policy makers this week are set to fall back on keeping rates unchanged.
“We're in a peculiar situation where, a year from now, we're likely to look back and say that monetary policy makers have made a very, very serious error,'' says David Lipton, head of global country-risk management for New York-based Citigroup Inc. “The problem is, we don't know whether we're going to say they were too loose or too tight.''
A lot's at stake. If central bankers leave rates too low, they risk stoking global inflation that's already projected by the International Monetary Fund to be the fastest in nine years. Keep rates too high and the world could fall into its first recession since 2001-2002.
In the past, when the U.S. economy weakened, the rest of the world usually followed quickly, and inflation eased as demand for oil and other commodities fell. U.S. recessions in 1990-1991 and 2001 brought global growth down by half, sending fuel prices tumbling.
Slowdown Delayed
That didn't happen this time. The world expansion barely slowed last year and oil prices surged, even as the U.S. economy shrank in the fourth quarter. Only now — two years after the U.S. housing boom went bust — is the slowdown spreading worldwide and the price of oil showing signs of receding.
The world may avoid a recession, deemed by economists to be global growth of 3 percent or less, and still end up with what Allen Sinai, chief economist at Decision Economics in New York, calls a “witches' brew'' of ailments: declines in the housing and stock markets, a credit crunch and commodity-driven inflation.
The energy and credit crises may have permanently weakened the global economy by making production and investment costlier. Deutsche Bank AG economists say long-term growth may fall to 4 percent from 5 percent.
`Weaker for Longer'
While the world rebounded from its last slump to record the strongest expansion since the 1970s, Richard Berner, co- head of global economics for Morgan Stanley in New York, says that “growth will have to stay weaker for longer'' this time if central banks are to curb inflationary pressures. “Investors should consider these developments as a regime change,'' Berner says.
The U.S. risks a relapse after bouncing up in the second quarter as consumers spent some of their $91 billion in tax rebates. “I don't see recovery'' on the horizon, says Harvard University's Martin Feldstein, who serves on the National Bureau of Economic Research committee that determines when recessions start and end.
The big concern is that consumers — whose spending accounts for more than 70 percent of the economy — will cut back after their splurge. The omens aren't good: Overdue payments at the six largest credit-card lenders rose in June after falling the two previous months.
Division at Fed
Chairman Bernanke and his Fed colleagues are divided over what to do next after cutting rates to 2 percent from 5.25 percent a year ago. Some, including Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher, favor tighter credit now to contain inflation overnight payday loans. A majority prefer to wait and see how the economy develops.
Kenneth Rogoff, a Harvard economics professor and former IMF chief economist, says Fed policy makers are “stuck.'' While they may want to raise rates to 3 percent to head off inflationary pressures, they can't for fear of upsetting still- fragile financial markets. Consequently, they'll hold borrowing costs unchanged for “an extended period,'' he says.
European Central Bank President Trichet's dilemma is similar. After dodging the U.S. slowdown last year, the 15- nation euro-area economy may have shrunk in the second quarter for the first time since the common currency's introduction in 1999. As in the U.S., housing booms in Spain, Portugal and Ireland are collapsing, while the euro's appreciation is hurting companies that export.
Recession Risk
“The risk of a recession is no longer negligible,'' says Holger Schmieding, chief European economist at Bank of America Corp. in London.
When a worldwide slump last began in 2001, the ECB cut interest rates. Not this time.
With inflation the fastest in more than 16 years, the bank raised rates to a seven-year high of 4.25 percent last month. Officials warn they'll do more if workers win big wage deals. Employees at Deutsche Lufthansa AG, Europe's second-biggest airline, last week ended a strike after winning a 5.1 percent pay increase retroactive to July 1, and an additional 2.3 percent increase next year.
“The ECB is clearly walking a tightrope,'' says Martin van Vliet, an economist at ING Bank in Amsterdam, who predicts the bank will keep its key rate unchanged until 2009. “It has to balance the lingering risk of a wage-price spiral with prospective disinflationary pressures emanating from the downturn,'' he says.
Sharp Debate
The debate is sharper at Governor King's Bank of England. The U.K. is slipping toward its first recession since 1990 as house prices slide after tripling in the past decade. With inflation almost twice the bank's 2 percent target, King's policy panel split three ways last month; the majority voted to keep rates at 5 percent.
Japan, too, is at risk of a recession. Exports fell in June for the first time since 2003 and unemployment reached 4.1 percent, almost a two-year high. The Bank of Japan has little room to act, with its benchmark interest rate of just 0.5 percent and consumer prices rising at the fastest pace in a decade.
“The fog hanging over Japan's economy will stick around for the time being,'' bank board member Atsushi Mizuno said July 24.
Even Asia's rapidly growing emerging economies are showing signs of slowing. The region's policy makers are at odds over how to react as inflation remains high.
Chinese officials suggest they may seek to bolster their economy after growth slowed in the second quarter by the most since 2005. Others remain intent on curbing inflation. India has raised rates three times since May while suffering the weakest growth in five years. Surging food and energy costs prompted Indonesia, Thailand and the Philippines to tighten credit in July.
“There's a kind of stagflation marching over the world economy,'' Sinai says. “I hope policy makers are able to figure it out and make the right decisions to fight it.''
Deutsche Bank AG’s net profit fell 64% in the second quarter as financial market turbulence from the U.S. credit crisis led to $3.6 billion in writedowns, the bank said Thursday.
Deutsche Bank (DB), Germany’s biggest, said net profit in the April through June period fell to $1 billion from $2.8 billion in the second quarter of 2007.
Total net revenues were down 39% to $8.42 billion from $13.7 billion a year ago, the Frankfurt-based bank said.
"The second quarter of 2008 proved to be another very challenging quarter for the banking industry," said Josef Ackermann, Deutsche Bank’s chief executive in a statement.
Corporate banking and securities’ loss before income taxes for the quarter were $485.2 million, the bank said. Markdowns on residential mortgage-backed securities, bond insurers, commercial real estate, and other positions amounted to $3.6 billion.
"The environment continued to affect the performance of our investment banking business, but our ’stable’ businesses again proved their resilience faxless payday advance. Despite additional markdowns, we produced a solid profit," Ackermann said.
"Looking forward, we remain cautious for the remainder of 2008. We will continue to strictly manage cost, risk and capital and to reduce our exposures in key areas. We will continue to invest in all our core businesses, both organically and by acquisition, but we will not relax our discipline."
Ackermann was not more specific on investing in acquisitions, nor did the report offer more of an outlook for the year.
Federal regulators on Tuesday extended through mid-August a temporary order banning a certain kind of short-selling of the stocks of mortgage finance companies Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and 17 large investment banks.
The Securities and Exchange Commission said the ban on so-called "naked" short selling will be in effect until 11:59 p.m. EDT on Aug. 12 and will not be extended.
Short sellers make a bet that a stock’s price will fall so that they can profit from it. They borrow shares of the stock and sell them. If the price drops, they buy cheaper actual shares to cover the borrowed ones, pocketing the difference.
"Naked" short selling occurs when sellers don’t even borrow the shares before selling them, and then look to cover positions immediately after the sale. The SEC order requires short sellers to actually borrow shares before selling them.
SEC Chairman Christopher Cox said the order was also helping prevent potential "distort and short" manipulation of stocks, which occurs when rumors and misinformation are used to drive down the price of a stock that has been sold short.
"In addition to continuing the existing order against naked short selling, the commission will continue exploring other remedies for the broader marketplace to further protect investors from ‘distort and short’ artists," Cox said in a statement.
The SEC said that extending the restrictions on short selling will allow regulators more time to collect and analyze data on the order’s impact and effectiveness.
After ban runs out, regulators will move to draw up formal rules to provide additional protections against abusive naked short selling in the broader market, while allowing legitimate short selling, the SEC said.
Advocates for smaller banks and investment firms have been urging the SEC to expand the ban on naked short selling to cover additional financial companies.
Analysts and government regulators blamed aggressive short selling for exacerbating the recent plunge in Fannie Mae (FNM, Fortune 500) and Freddie Mac’s (FRE, Fortune 500) stock, as well as that of big investment house Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc (LEH, Fortune 500).
The SEC initially announced the emergency order on July 15 after a perilous slide in shares of Fannie and Freddie, the government-sponsored companies that together hold or guarantee more than $5 trillion in home mortgages - nearly half the U.S instant payday loan. total.
The regulators’ move followed a 13% drop in the price of Fannie shares and a 22% plunge in Freddie’s on July 10, when a news report said the government had begun contingency planning in the event the companies failed. The next day, Freddie shares plummeted 33% at one point and Fannie stock lost 29% of its value.
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