Television shopping giant QVC said Black Friday generated more than $32 million in orders - a 60 percent increase over last year’s sales.
That represents 765,000 units ordered in a 24-hour period for the shopping channel, which offers its own brand of holiday specials. Officials called its programming “the largest and most aggressive Black Friday event in the multimedia retailer’s 23-year history.” That meant lots of deals and much less talk.
QVC.com contributed 40 percent of the sales.
Top sellers included a Sylvania digital camcorder, Playhut Travel Lounger, Nintendo Wii, Olympus 5x zoom Camera.
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said a “strong case” can be made for keeping the central bank involved in bank supervision, and subjecting interest rate policy to congressional audits may undermine confidence in monetary policy. “There is a strong case for a continued role for the Federal Reserve in bank supervision,” the Fed Chairman said in a commentary released today on the Web site of the Washington Post. “Because of our role in making monetary policy, the Fed brings unparalleled economic and financial expertise to its oversight of banks.”
Bernanke has presided over the most expansive use of Fed powers since the Great Depression. While the 55-year-old Fed chairman has said he averted a financial meltdown, lawmakers have voiced concern about potential taxpayer losses and proposed the most sweeping dismantlement of Fed authority since the creation of the institution in 1913.
The Fed chairman said legislation under consideration in Congress would impair the ability of the central bank to fulfill its basic functions.
“A number of the legislative proposals being circulated would significantly reduce the capacity of the Federal Reserve to perform its core functions,” he said. “Now more than ever, America needs a strong, nonpolitical and independent central bank with the tools to promote financial stability and to help steer our economy to recovery without inflation.”
Lax Supervision
Senate Banking Committee Christopher Dodd, a Democrat from Connecticut, has criticized the central bank for lax supervision and introduced legislation this month that would strip bank oversight from the Fed and create a single bank regulator. Dodd would also limit the central bank’s ability to loan to individual companies.
“Congress has a lot of public support for an attack on the Fed,” Allan Meltzer, a Fed historian and professor at Carnegie Mellon University in Pittsburgh, said in an interview Nov. 23. “They bailed out everybody in sight.”
The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index slid 1.7 percent to 1,091.49 in New York while two-year Treasury yields fell to the lowest level since December.
Dodd and Representative Barney Frank, chairman of the House Financial Services Committee, want to take away the Fed’s rule- writing power on consumer financial products and give it to a new Consumer Financial Protection Agency.
“The Federal Reserve, like other regulators around the world, did not do all that it could have to constrain excessive risk-taking in the financial sector in the period leading up to the crisis,” Bernanke said. The Fed has reviewed its performance and “moved aggressively to fix the problems,” he added easy payday loans.
Trigger Losses
As the subprime mortgage crisis began to trigger losses in bank portfolios, Bernanke used emergency authority last year to purchase securities from Bear Stearns Cos. and facilitate its merger with JPMorgan Chase & Co.
Bernanke also pushed the Fed’s backstop lending beyond banks, setting up programs to support the commercial paper and asset-backed securities markets. The Fed Board approved the bank holding company applications of Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Morgan Stanley, giving them access to the Fed’s loan window.
Under Bernanke, the Fed has more than doubled its assets to $2.21 trillion and become the lender of last resort to government bond dealers, banks, Wall Street firms and U.S. corporations. The central bank has also propped up markets for mortgage-backed and asset-backed securities that support credit to consumers, small businesses and commercial real estate.
Reform Bill
A financial regulatory reform bill proposed by Frank, a Democrat from Massachusetts, would limit Fed emergency lending to broadly available credit programs. The Frank bill preserves the Obama administration’s proposal to make the Fed the lead regulator of risk across the financial system.
The central bank’s independence is also under fire from both chambers of Congress. Frank’s committee advanced a proposal this month to remove a three-decade ban on congressional audits of Fed interest-rate decisions. The proposal was offered by Representative Ron Paul, a Republican from Texas, and based on a bill with more than 300 co-sponsors.
Bernanke said studies show that central banks independent of political influence tend to keep inflation and interest rates lower than their less independent counterparts.
“The general repeal of that exemption would serve only to increase the perceived influence of Congress on monetary policy decisions, which would undermine the confidence the public and the markets have in the Fed to act in the long-term economic interest of the nation,” Bernanke said.
Under the proposal by Dodd, commercial banks would lose their power to appoint directors of the 12 regional Fed banks. Instead, directors would be chosen by the Fed’s Senate-confirmed governors, and each board chairman would be appointed by the president of the United States and subject to Senate approval.
The proposal would create political oversight of the Fed bank presidents, who are among the most vocal proponents on the Federal Open Market Committee for keeping inflation low.
The U.K. economy shrank less than previously estimated in the third quarter as consumer spending stopped falling and the service industries slump eased, bringing the longest recession on record closer to an end.
Gross domestic product fell 0.3 percent from the previous three months, compared with a prior measurement of a 0.4 percent drop, the Office for National Statistics said today in London. The result matched the median prediction of 28 economists in a Bloomberg News survey.
Prime Minister Gordon Brown this week called for stimulus to stay in place to avoid “choking off recovery” as an election looms within six months. The Bank of England has expanded its bond-purchase plan three times since March to ensure Britain’s escape from recession and Governor Mervyn King said yesterday the pickup isn’t “particularly strong.”
“Over the coming quarters the economy will accelerate pretty sharply,” said Nick Kounis, chief European economist at Fortis Bank Nederland NV in Amsterdam and a former U.K. Treasury official. “In third quarter the U.K. was one of the sick men of Europe but it’s going to step up a few gears and will be one of the stronger performers in Europe next year.”
The pound rose 0.8 percent against the dollar today and traded at $1.6704 as of 11:04 a.m. in London. The yield on the 2-year gilt fell 6 basis points to 1.16 percent.
Lagging Behind
The U.K.’s recovery has lagged behind that of the U.S. and the euro area, which have both returned to growth. Data yesterday showed Germany’s economic growth accelerated in the third quarter, while the U.S. economy expanded at a 2.8 percent annual rate, less than the government reported last month.
Brown is trying to revive the U.K. economy in time to defeat Conservative Leader David Cameron at the election, due by June. An Ipsos Mori poll in the Observer on Nov. 22 showed the Conservatives with a six-point lead, the least since December.
Consumer spending was unchanged in the third quarter, the first time it hasn’t dropped in 1 1/2 years. Government spending rose 0.2 percent, while fixed investment fell 0.3 percent, the statistics office said.
J Sainsbury Plc, the U.K.’s third- biggest supermarket owner, on Nov. 11 reported growth in first-half profit that beat analysts’ estimates. John Lewis Partnership Plc, owner of the namesake department stores and Waitrose supermarkets, said Nov fast cash advance loan. 22 that sales gained 15 percent in the week of Nov. 21.
Inventories fell by 4.1 billion pounds ($6.8 billion), the fourth consecutive decline. The slump in inventories is now the biggest on record, the statistics office said.
Services, Manufacturing
Officials revised up the GDP data because the decline in services output was smaller than previously estimated, at 0.1 percent instead of 0.2 percent. Manufacturing dropped 0.1 percent, up from the prior measurement of 0.2 percent.
Compass Group Plc, the world’s largest catering company, today reported full-year profit that beat analyst estimates. Lloyds Banking Group Plc, the U.K.’s biggest mortgage lender, gained in London trading yesterday after it announced plans to raise a record 13.5 billion pounds in the country’s biggest rights offering.
The Bank of England forecasts Britain will exit the recession in the fourth quarter. The economy will expand 2.2 percent in 2010 and 4.1 percent in 2011, according to policy makers’ projections published on Nov. 11.
Policy makers have cut the benchmark interest rate to a record low of 0.5 percent and pledged to buy 200 billion pounds in bonds to aid the economy. While policy maker Adam Posen told lawmakers that “one hopes that we are coming to the end” of the purchase program, King said he “can’t rule out” buying more assets.
Data ‘Surprise’
Policy maker Andrew Sentance said in a speech on Nov. 16 that the “surprise” gross domestic product estimate may be revised later, and told Bloomberg Television that “the broad balance of evidence is that the U.K. economy has started to grow in the second half of this year.”
Unemployment rose at the slowest pace in 18 months in October, retail sales climbed for a second month and the inflation rate increased more than expected, to 1.5 percent. The bank aims to keep inflation at 2 percent.
Banks are still working to shore up their finances after government-led bailouts of Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc and Lloyds Banking Group Plc during the 2008 financial crisis. Lloyds said yesterday it plans to raise a record 13.4 billion pounds in the country’s biggest rights offering.
Irish government workers will stage the biggest strike in at least three decades today in protest at plans to cut pay to contain the budget deficit.
Nurses, teachers and tax officials are among around 250,000 workers taking part in the 24-hour nationwide stoppage over what unions have said are “vicious” cost-cutting plans by the government, which is grappling with a deficit amounting to about 12 percent of gross domestic product.
Ireland, once Europe’s most dynamic economy, has been hit by a property crash and the global recession, eroding tax income and pushing the shortfall to 26 billion euros ($38.9 billion) this year. Finance Minister Brian Lenihan wants to cut about 4 billion euros from spending in the Dec. 9 budget to rebuild investors’ confidence after borrowing costs soared.
“Strikes will send the wrong signals,” said Alan McQuaid, chief economist with Bloxham Stockbrokers in Dublin. “If the international market sees the government standing up, they will see it as a good thing. There is a steely determination on the part of the government to do the right thing.”
The stoppage has been partially scaled back due to flooding in the south and west of the country after heavy rainfall. Hospitals and emergency service workers will maintain services in those areas, unions said on Nov. 22. The strike today will still close shut social welfare offices, passport offices and the public offices of the state tax authorities.
“The private sector has had to discount and cut costs, the public sector must respond,” said John Forde of Dublin- based Chambers Ireland, which represents 13,000 companies. “Hard decisions must now be taken to resolve this issue.”
Lost Rating
The difference in yield, or spread, between 10-year Irish securities and 10-year German bunds was at 150 basis points yesterday. While it’s narrowed since reaching 284 basis points in March, the spread remains five times wider than its average over the last decade. Ireland has also lost its top credit rating at Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s Investors Service and Fitch ratings this year.
The government said this month that the deficit will hit 14 percent of gross domestic product next year, almost five times the European Union limit, unless it takes action. It sees the economy, which doubled in size in the decade through 2007, shrinking 1.5 percent in 2010 after a 7.5 percent contraction this year.
President Barack Obama said he focused much of his recent week-long trip to Asia on exploring ways to increase U.S. exports and thereby create jobs.
Obama returned Nov. 19 from a trip to Japan, China and South Korea. In his weekly radio and Internet address, he said increased exports to those countries can help the U.S. recover from its highest unemployment rate in decades.
“Above all, I spoke with leaders in every nation I visited about what we can do to sustain this economic recovery and bring back jobs and prosperity for our people,” Obama said in the address, which was taped in Seoul. “Increasing our exports is one way to create new jobs and create new prosperity.”
The U.S. unemployment rate rose to 10.2 percent in October, the highest level since 1983. Obama said he will continue to focus “relentlessly” on creating new jobs.
The administration will host a jobs forum at the White House next month with business executives, economists, financial experts and representatives from labor unions to talk about government policies that can encourage job growth.
In today’s address, Obama said the administration won’t make any “ill-considered decisions” about spurring job growth because of the federal budget deficit, which reached a record $1.4 trillion in the fiscal year that ended Sept. 30.
Right Direction
Obama said the economy, which grew 3.5 percent in the third quarter, is moving in the right direction after government approval of a $787 billion stimulus package in February
“The steps we are taking are helping,” he said paydayloans. “And I will not let up until businesses start hiring again.”
Obama said his Asia trip was also marked by productive efforts to develop new clean-energy initiatives and progress in working with China to send a unified message to Iran and North Korea in opposition to the development of nuclear weapons.
In today’s Republican address, Senator Mike Crapo of Idaho said health-care legislation proposed by Senate Democratic leaders would increase insurance costs, taxes and government spending while reducing benefits.
“This is not true health-care reform and it is not what the American people want,” Crapo said.
The Senate is scheduled to take a rare weekend vote today on whether to begin debate on the $848 billion legislation, which is intended to cover 31 million uninsured Americans and curb medical costs.
Crapo said the measure would raise taxes by “nearly half- a-trillion dollars,” and cut hundreds of billions of dollars from Medicare, the government health-insurance program for the elderly and disabled.
Crapo said a better approach to health-care overhaul would be “step-by-step reforms” proposed by Republicans, such as letting consumers purchase insurance across state lines, allowing small businesses to pool together to purchase insurance for employees, and eliminating waste, fraud and abuse.
“These are the kinds of reform that make sense and would really make a difference for all Americans,” he said.
Russian consumers are benefiting from a stronger ruble that’s boosted incomes and offset tight credit while a lack of investment is hampering a rebound in manufacturing, a series of economic reports showed today.
Real disposable incomes posted the biggest jump in more than a year last month and retail sales rose from September, signaling consumer demand is returning following October’s 3.4 percent gain in the ruble against the dollar.
The economy of the world’s biggest energy producer is showing signs of recovery as a return of global demand for commodities supported exporters and domestic demand rebounded after the ruble gained to the strongest level this year. Russia’s record 10.9 percent economic contraction in the second quarter eased to an 8.9 percent decline last quarter.
“Household consumption is stabilizing after lagging behind the rest of the economy,” said Olga Naydenova, an economist at Otkritie Financial Corp. in Moscow. She expected a broader improvement in indicators last month as “people have learned to adapt to the changing situation, and budget spending on social needs also helped.”
The ruble lost 0.8 percent to 29.0506 per dollar at 4:22 p.m. in Moscow, paring its weekly gain against the U.S. currency to 0.6 percent. The ruble slid 0.5 percent to 35.3348 against the central bank’s target currency basket.
Retailer Gains
OAO Dixy Group, Russia’s third-largest publicly traded food retailer, added 4.62 rubles, or 2.1 percent, to 219.99 rubles in Moscow. The stock has gained 323 percent so far this year. The shares of X5 Retail Group NV and OAO Magnit, Russia’s two biggest food retailers, are up 234 percent and 274 percent in 2009, outperforming the 30-stock Micex Index, which has jumped 114 percent this year.
Disposable incomes climbed a monthly 6 percent in October and rose 3.9 percent compared with the same period last year, the biggest annual jump since September 2008, the Federal Statistics Service said. Retail sales rose 3.2 percent from September and declined 8.5 percent on an annual basis compared with a 9.9 percent drop the month before.
The government has made spending on social needs, including benefits and pensions, a priority of its stimulus program, which deployed 2.5 trillion rubles ($86.4 billion) to bolster the economy with tax breaks, loan guarantees and subsidies.
‘Too Early’
Service industries, which account for about 40 percent of the economy, rose for a third month in October, advancing to the highest since September 2008, VTB Capital said on Nov. 5, citing its Purchasing Managers’ Index.
“Although the economy is no longer declining, it is too early to speak of a recovery,” Alfa Bank analysts led by Ekaterina Leonova said in a Nov. 18 report. “Signs of improvement are still very fragile and do not constitute a trend.”
The ruble appreciated 3.4 percent against the dollar for its second consecutive monthly gain in October. Imports account for about 49 percent of the consumer goods sold in Russia, the government estimated last year.
A stronger currency has increased spending power for the domestic market as “it transfers incomes into people’s pockets,” said Clemens Grafe, chief economist at UBS in Moscow.
Wage declines also eased last month as exporters returned to profitability. Wages fell an annual 4.5 percent in October, compared with a 4.9 percent decline the previous month. Retail sales have fallen for nine consecutive months, the longest period of declines on record.
Manufacturing Slump
Rebounding consumer demand isn’t reflected in the country’s manufacturing sector. Russia’s industrial slump deepened in October as companies failed to build up inventories and credit remained tight even after eight central bank interest rate cuts since April.
Output in October fell 11.2 percent from a year earlier after the decline eased to 9.5 percent in September. Manufacturers are struggling to stay profitable as banks rein in credit, hampering investment even as demand picks up for commodities, Russia’s chief export.
“High interest rates and sharp ruble appreciation may have added pressure to the competitiveness of Russian goods,” said Anton Nikitin, an analyst at Renaissance Capital in Moscow. “In this environment, fourth-quarter GDP growth might be weaker than we previously thought.”
Shrinking output may spur the central bank to further loosen monetary policy, Nikitin said.
Bank Rossii is scheduled to hold a board meeting on Nov. 24 where a rate decision may be discussed, First Deputy Chairman Alexei Ulyukayev said yesterday.
The U.S. economic recovery will extend into next year as manufacturing expands and the pace of firings abates, reports today indicated.
The Conference Board’s index of leading indicators, a gauge of the outlook for the next three to six months, rose 0.3 percent in October, preserving a string of gains that began in April. Other reports showed claims for jobless benefits held at a 10-month low and Philadelphia-area manufacturing accelerated.
The rally in stock prices, low short-term interest rates and slowing job losses that propelled the leading index signal consumer confidence and spending are likely to stabilize, limiting the risk the economy will retrench. The data supported Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner’s forecast today that the emerging expansion will be sustained into 2010.
“It’s very clear that the economy is now expanding, but I don’t see it being a vigorous expansion,” said Michael Moran, chief economist at Daiwa Securities America Inc. in New York, who correctly forecast the leading index. “We are seeing a gradual improvement, but the key word is ‘gradual.’”
Stocks extended a global drop as concern grew that the rally outpaced the prospects for economic growth and Bank of America Corp. downgraded chipmakers. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index fell 1.3 percent to close at 1,094.9, with Intel Corp. and Texas Instruments Inc. losing ground.
Economists forecast the leading indicators index would increase 0.4 percent, according to the median of 58 estimates in a Bloomberg News survey.
Geithner Forecast
“We expect continued growth in the fourth quarter and ahead in 2010,” Geithner said today in testimony before the Joint Economic Committee of Congress.
He urged Congress to pass a financial regulation overhaul intended to strengthen the banking system and guard against “market-driven excess,” to avoid a repeat of the worst crisis since the Great Depression. Congress is considering a plan that includes changes to oversight of large banks, consumer protection and derivatives.
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke last week said “significant economic challenges remain” due to a weak labor market and reduced bank lending.
The number of Americans filing claims for unemployment benefits held at 505,000 in the week ended Nov. 14, matching the prior week’s reading as the lowest since January. The number of people collecting unemployment insurance dropped in the prior week, while those getting extended payments jumped.
‘Glacial Pace’
“The labor market is improving, but at a glacial pace,” said Tom Porcelli, a senior economist at RBC Capital Markets in New York, who had forecast claims at 503,000 . “People are having a hard time finding a job as companies remain wary of the economic recovery.”
President Barack Obama on Nov. 6 signed into law a plan to extend jobless benefits, expand a tax credit for first-time homebuyers, and provide tax refunds to money-losing companies. The measure gives jobless people as many as 20 additional weeks of unemployment assistance.
The president has also announced plans to convene a jobs summit at the White House next month.
Manufacturing in the Philadelphia region expanded in November at the fastest pace in more than two years, reflecting gains in orders and sales, figures from the Fed Bank of Philadelphia also showed today.
Factory Rebound
The bank’s general economic index rose to 16.7 this month, exceeding the median forecast of economists surveyed and the highest level since June 2007, from 11.5 in October. Readings greater than zero signal growth.
Six of the 10 components in the leading index contributed to last month’s increase, led by the difference between short- and long-term borrowing costs, fewer jobless claims and higher equity prices. A longer factory workweek, a rise in money supply and an increase in factory orders for consumer goods also helped. Weaker consumer expectations, fewer building permits, shorter delivery times and a drop in orders for business equipment limited the advance.
Manufacturers that export to China and other emerging economies are among companies profiting from growth abroad. Caterpillar Inc., the world’s largest maker of bulldozers and excavators, posted third-quarter earnings that beat analysts’ estimates and issued a full-year forecast that exceeded the highest prediction.
“We are seeing encouraging signs that indicate a recovery may be under way,” Chief Executive Officer Jim Owens said in a statement Oct. 20. “When it comes, it can come quickly, and we, our dealers and our suppliers will be prepared.”
The world’s largest economy probably expanded at a 3 percent annual pace from October through December after growing at a 3.5 percent rate in the prior quarter, according to the median estimate of economists surveyed earlier this month. That followed a 3.8 percent contraction in the 12 months to June, the economy’s worst performance since the 1930s.
The U.S. recession that began in December 2007 cost the top metropolitan areas all of the 2.29 million jobs they had gained in the previous expansion, according to a report released on Wednesday.
“All of the job growth that occurred in the top U.S. metropolitan areas from August 2000 through August 2007 was erased by the subsequent recession,” New York City Comptroller William Thompson said in a quarterly economic report.
The net loss is 7,000 jobs.
The two mature cities with the biggest job losses were Chicago, whose employers cut 257,700 workers, and Detroit, which lost over 467,400 jobs, the report said.
Boston lost 103,500 jobs, followed by Minneapolis-St. Paul, with a loss of 35,500 positions; St Louis, which shed 28,400 jobs, and Philadelphia, where 21,400 positions were lost.
But there were two upbeat notes in this sour trend.
In spite of the financial crisis on Wall Street and thousands of high-paying jobs lost after Lehman Brothers filed for bankruptcy in September 2008 and other banks merged, New York City emerged as part of a positive trend over the entire nine-year period covered by the city comptroller’s report.
The New York-New Jersey area was one of only two “mature metropolitan areas” that succeeded in increasing jobs from August 2000 to August 2009. The New York-New Jersey area added 95,700 positions over that nine-year period, according to the report from Thompson, a Democrat.
Baltimore was the other bright spot, chalking up a gain of 26,500 jobs in that nine-year period,
But in the last expansion, New York City underperformed Washington, D loans until payday.C., Baltimore and Philadelphia in increasing the number of high-paying professional and business services jobs that tend to face less of a threat from foreign rivals than manufacturing, for example.
FEELING WALL STREET’S PAIN
Although New York City fared better than some of its peers, the city comptroller’s report revealed the widespread devastation caused by Wall Street’s implosion due to the credit crunch and the stock market’s slide after the housing market’s bubble burst. A total of 40,000 financial jobs have been lost since August 2007. And the city’s jobless rate jumped to 10.3 percent in September from 6 percent a year-ago.
New York City’s fortunes rise and fall with Wall Street because banks and brokerages spur hiring in service sectors, from florists to law firms, during profitable years.
General sales-tax collections fell 12 percent in the third quarter from a year ago, while income taxes withheld from paychecks dropped 7.2 percent. Manhattan’s office vacancy rate shot up to 11.1 percent in the third quarter — the highest level since the 2004 third quarter, the report said, citing Cushman & Wakefield data.
How swiftly the city exits the downturn rests partly with Congress. The federal government’s newfound zeal for reining in Wall Street’s risk-taking and compensation could crimp the financial industry’s ability to kickstart the city’s economy.
A spate of attacks in Pakistan’s Punjab as Islamic militants work more closely with the Taliban has raised business concern in the province that generates more than half of the country’s economic growth.
Forty-two people were killed last month in Punjab, home to Pakistan’s largest bank and companies producing clothing for retailers Levi Strauss & Co. and Gap Inc. Recent increases in surveillance and arrests are unlikely to reverse the violence that killed more than 220 people in the province in the first 10 months of this year, 20 percent more than 2008, said Ayesha Siddiqa, a Punjabi researcher on military and security issues.
The Karachi Stock Exchange 100 Index fell 2 percent last month, the most since January and only the third negative month this year, as bombings and militant assaults in major cities nationwide hurt investor confidence.
“The implications of this war spreading to Punjab are pretty severe,” said Standard Chartered Plc economist Sayem Ali in Karachi. Punjab represents 55 percent of Pakistan’s gross domestic product, he said. With foreign direct investment down by 60 percent in the three months to September, “our domestic security problems cloud companies’ strategies for coming back into Pakistan any time soon.”
Since the army began its biggest anti-Taliban offensive on Oct. 17 near the border with Afghanistan, bombings have killed about 350 people nationwide, mostly civilians.
Cricket Ambush
While Punjab has seen fewer terrorist attacks than Pakistan’s ethnic Pashtun northwest, guerrillas in Lahore attacked three police headquarters last month and ambushed the Sri Lankan national cricket team’s bus in March. Militants last month raided the army headquarters in Rawalpindi, also in Punjab. The province is home to about half of the country’s 180 million people.
The government must continue to stand up to the guerrillas or “the violence will continue to spread and investors will not feel safe anywhere” in Pakistan, said Habib-ur-Rehman, who manages $48 million of stocks and bonds at Karachi-based Atlas Asset Management Ltd.
Punjab is home to much of Pakistan’s textile sector and the nation’s largest bank by market value, MCB Bank Ltd. Textiles account for two-thirds of the country’s exports in a $165- billion economy.
Pakistan’s overseas direct investment fell 58 percent to $463 million in the three months ended Sept. 30, from $1.1 billion a year ago, according to data from the central bank.
Surveillance Cameras
“We have to keep so many security guards, set up surveillance cameras at the factories,” said Raza Mansha, chief executive of D.G. Khan Cement Ltd., Pakistan’s second-biggest cement maker, based in Lahore, Punjab’s capital and the country’s second-largest city. It “adds to our non-productive expenses and gives foreign visitors a bad impression guaranteed online payday loans.”
D.G. Khan Cement and MCB Bank are part of the Nishat Group, Pakistan’s largest industrial group. D.G. Khan shares fell 16 percent in October and have risen 4.3 percent this month. MCB was down 4 percent in October and is up 7 percent this month.
The benchmark share index has gained 56 percent this year after losing 59 percent in 2008. It rose 2.6 percent yesterday.
Interior Minister Rehman Malik told reporters last month that at least two Punjab-based groups — Jaish-e-Muhammad (Soldiers of Muhammad) and Lashkar-e-Jhangvi (the Army of Jhang, a southern Punjab city) — were operating jointly with the Taliban and al-Qaeda to attack the Pakistani state.
Limited Crackdown
Still, Pakistan’s crackdown on jihadist groups in the province has been limited, and won’t reverse the decades of growth that have made the militant groups a durable part of the political landscape, said Siddiqa.
“The state’s response really has been business-as-usual — selective pressure” rather than a systematic campaign against Islamic radicalism, Islamabad-based Siddiqa said in a phone interview.
For Umer Mansha, chief executive officer of Lahore-based Nishat Mills Ltd., that’s a worrying message. His company produces garments for San Francisco-based Levi-Strauss, the closely held maker of blue jeans and Dockers pants, and Gap, based in the same U.S. city and operator of the Old Navy and Banana Republic chains.
“Textile buyers like to come, see and feel the product,” Mansha, whose company is also part of the Nishat Group, said in an interview Nov. 12. “Buyers are simply not willing to come here. It’s very hard to get new clients.”
More Than Last Year
More than 10,000 Pakistanis — civilians, security forces and militants — have died in the country’s violence this year, a rate 75 percent higher than last year’s record, according to the New Delhi-based Institute for Conflict Management.
“The tactics used in recent attacks in Punjab, plus the literature recovered by police in making arrests, shows that there is more coordination and contact now between Punjab militants and the Arabs of al-Qaeda,” said Muhammad Amir Rana, director of the Islamabad-based Pak Institute for Peace Studies.
Punjab Home Ministry and police officials didn’t respond to phone calls and e-mail messages asking how many alleged perpetrators have been detained in the province.
The “poverty of southern Punjab in particular, and the covert support and funds that militants have had” from Arab donors and Pakistan’s military, “have let them build durable organizations,” said security researcher Siddiqa. “Militancy in Punjab is now a fixture.”
China’s Commerce Ministry on Monday rebuffed calls for the yuan to appreciate, signaling resistance to change in a controversial foreign exchange policy that loomed over U.S. President Barack Obama’s first visit to the Asian giant.
Outside pressure has been building on Beijing to let the yuan rise after more than a year of it being nearly frozen in place against the dollar, with the latest appeal voiced by the head of the International Monetary Fund on Monday.
China’s central bank last week tweaked its description of how it manages the currency, setting off a firestorm of speculation that it might be willing to give the yuan some room to run, though market expectations of appreciation have remained muted.
Any change in policy as important as exchange rate management will need to come from China’s top leadership, bridging the views of different parts of the government. The commerce ministry made clear its position.
“Either from the perspective of promoting stable global economic development, or from the perspective of promoting a recovery in Chinese exports, we must provide a stable and predictable environment for our enterprises, including macro-economic policy and currency policy,” Yao Jian, a ministry spokesman, said on Monday.
Although China’s economy has outperformed nearly all others in its recovery from the global financial crisis, many analysts believe that a sustained upturn in exports — a core concern of the commerce ministry — will be required for Beijing to let the yuan rise.
The comments by the commerce ministry’s spokesman set the stage for tension with Obama, who arrived in Shanghai late on Sunday, ready to urge China to play its part in making global growth more balanced.
Getting China to spend more and save less is a principal ingredient of such change, because China’s massive trade surplus with the United States stands as perhaps the most glaring of global economic imbalances and a major reason cited by Beijing’s critics to explain why the yuan should be rising.
RELUCTANT ON YUAN
China has adopted a range of policies to stoke domestic demand, from ramping up its social security system to building more roads to its underserved interior, but its reluctance to move on the yuan remains a thorny issue.
IMF Managing Director Dominique Strauss-Kahn said on Monday that exchange rate appreciation is part of the reforms that Beijing needs to implement to increase domestic consumption.
“A stronger currency is part of the package of necessary reforms,” he said. “Allowing the renminbi (yuan) and other Asian currencies to rise would help increase the purchasing power of households, raise the labor share of income, and provide the right incentives to reorient investment.”
Market expectations of yuan appreciation picked up a touch after China’s central bank said last Wednesday that it would consider major currencies, not just the dollar, in guiding the exchange rate.
In the same report, the People’s Bank of China dropped its customary wording about keeping the yuan “basically stable.”
Nevertheless, investors are still betting on only moderate yuan appreciation.
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