NEW YORK — A few corners of the frozen credit markets thawed a bit Monday on news of the U.S. government’s bank bailout plans, but business was hardly back to normal. And, when the dust settles, credit market participants’ lending and borrowing operations probably will be changed dramatically.
Last week, the credit markets — where the world buys and sells debt — were thrown into a tumult after a cascade of troubling events, from the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers Holdings to the bailout of insurer American International Group. Over the weekend, the U.S. government said it would buy $700 billion in mortgage debt and asset-backed commercial paper from the nation’s struggling banks.
Although several credit market indicators improved Monday compared with last week, they did not show restored confidence. And they aren’t likely to for some time, said John Atkins, a fixed-income analyst at research company IDEAGlobal.com.
"For the next five years, certainly, we’re going to see a real retrenchment in risk appetite, risk extension," Atkins said.
As investors waited for more information on the bailout plan, they reacted to news that Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs were going to become commercial banks, and that Morgan Stanley was selling up to a 20 percent stake to Japan’s Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc.
The status of Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs as commercial banks regulated by the government could force the two institutions to take on less risk going forward than they did as investment banks.
"We’ve essentially just eliminated a whole way of doing business," said Howard Simons, strategist with Bianco Research in Chicago, referring to the changes at Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs.
That may mean that the level of lending in the credit markets may never get back to its year-ago levels. Over the last year, the asset-backed commercial paper market has shrunk from about $1.2 trillion to a little over $700 billion, according to Federal Reserve data.
To be sure, the commercial paper markets have not completely shut down; UnitedHealth Group Inc., for one, said it was able to sell commercial paper last week. And companies are relying on the market operating in the future; Microsoft Corp same day payday loans. on Monday established a $2 billion commercial paper program.
Still, the market is not functioning normally, which is a worry for corporations — particularly those who issue paper backed by assets such as mortgages.
Simons compared the credit markets’ role in the business world to the wiring in a building. You might not usually notice it, but it’s essential — and when it turns faulty, it becomes dangerous. "All of a sudden, we’re finding out those are causing the building to burn down," he said.
The credit markets are huge and diverse, so they cannot be measured as definitively as the stock market. But there are ways to monitor the willingness to lend in these markets.
One is the 3-month Treasury bill, considered one of the safest short-term investments and an alternative when other short-term debt markets are tight. As oil prices jumped and stocks tumbled on Monday, demand for the 3-month Treasury bill remained high. The yield, which moves opposite from price, was at 0.91 percent by Monday afternoon, down modestly from 0.94 percent late Friday. That means the investment will earn less than 1 percent after three months.
Another indicator is the rate on commercial paper, or the bonds that companies sell to borrow money for a short period of time, usually 30 days. Higher rates mean people are less willing to lend companies money in return for their bonds.
Richard Cantor, chief credit officer at Moody’s Investors Service, said during a conference call Monday that the ratings agency expects credit conditions to tighten in the near term for individuals and businesses, and that it is "also likely that the commercial paper market will remain challenging" for issuers for some time before returning to normal.
According to Bianco Research’s Simons, 30-day dealer commercial paper traded at a rate of 3.2 percent, the same as Friday. That rate is still well above 2.38 percent on Sept. 12, but below the rate of 3.27 percent reached last Wednesday.
Tom Murphy of The Associated Press in Indianapolis contributed to this report.
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