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The U.S. economy isn’t contracting as fast as it was six months ago, but there are still only a few signs of actual growth, according to the latest data.

Thus far, the expectation that gross domestic product will increase in the third quarter is just that: an expectation. Economists are pretty sure the economy will begin to grow, based on well-established leading indicators that point to a recovery beginning soon.

Another top forecaster signaled the end of the recession Monday. "The longest and deepest recession of the postwar era has ended," said IHS Global Insight. In the last week, the Conference Board and the International Monetary Fund have said the recession is waning.

"Massive inventory liquidations in the first half of 2009 have set the stage for rebounds in global production and trade," said Global Insight chief economist Nariman Behravesh. "Financial markets have stabilized and investors’ appetite for risk is returning, although credit will remain relatively tight as banks rebuild their capital positions."

The recovery could lose steam in a few quarters, Behravesh continued. "A sustained, robust global recovery depends on renewed growth in consumer spending and capital investment. The coming expansion will be restrained by cautious consumers."

The median forecast of economists surveyed by MarketWatch looks for annualized growth of 3 percent in the third quarter and 2.5 percent in the fourth quarter. The GDP data for the third quarter will be released in late October.

Growth will likely be propelled, in part, by a slower pace of inventory reduction and by higher exports. Domestic demand may not be very strong, with still-weak business investment offsetting a temporary jump in consumer spending from the Cash for Clunkers deal, they say.

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