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When a mysterious flu emerged from Mexico in late April, government officials dubbed it "swine flu" — a label that quickly became a hog farmer’s worst nightmare.

In the days just after April 24, when the flu began to dominate the globe’s airwaves and newspapers, pork prices tumbled, socking an industry that was already down.

Industry officials tried to persuade authorities and the media to call the flu by its subtype. The World Health Organization, the U.S. Department of Agriculture, the Food and Drug Administration heeded the pleas. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention switched to this: a "novel influenza A (H1N1) … of swine origin."

"It’s the H1N1," said Rick Rehmeier, who raises 20,000 hogs a year on his family’s farm in St. Charles County. "I even corrected my minister in church one day."

But swine flu was too convenient a handle. The name stuck, and pork purchases plummeted.

Now, more than a month after the outbreak began, the pork business is still reeling and will probably continue to struggle for months to come. One estimate puts the losses at more than $80 million so far.

"The overall loss is just staggering," said Don Nikodim, of the Missouri Pork Producers Association. "If you add that on top of the general trend, it continues to be a very painful business to be in."

The "misnomer" was a major factor, pork producers say. "If they had called it H1N1 from the beginning, we wouldn’t have had the drop in prices," said Steve Meyer, an analyst for the National Pork Board.

But the association with swine was damning enough. Consumption in Mexico, the United States’ second largest export market, plummeted, largely because the public didn’t get the message from health officials that humans can’t contract the flu from eating pork. Several countries shut their borders to U.S. pork, including Russia and China, also among the top importers.

"The problem is the perception that you can get the disease from swine," said Ron Plain, a professor of agricultural economics at the University of Missouri-Columbia, "and as far as we know, nobody in the world has gotten it from swine."

The virus is a combination of swine, avian and human influenza strains. As of Friday, the flu had sickened 15,510 people in 53 countries and was connected to 99 deaths. In the United States it has sickened 8,975 people and has been linked to 15 deaths, including one in Missouri and two in Illinois.

So far, the flu has been detected in one swine herd — in Canada. Initially, health officials suspected that a Smithfield-owned hog plant in Vera Cruz, Mexico, was the source of the outbreak. Tests of hogs, however, came back negative for the flu, the pork industry says.

Even before the flu outbreak, the pork industry already had been beset with challenges.

A rise in grain prices increased operating costs, making last year the second-least profitable on record for U.S. pork producers, even as the price for hogs was the third highest. Then the recession crept in, and consumers, particularly overseas, started to eat less meat low cost payday loans.

"What started off causing the problems was the enormous run-up in grain prices because of the ethanol industry," Plain explained. "Then when gas prices got cheaper, grain prices got cheaper, which was some relief. But gas prices dropped because of the recession. … That hurts demand. Unemployment is up and people have less money to spend, here and in other countries."

The price per hog carcass in May 2008 was about $148. A year later, it’s about $108. The National Pork Board attributes half the difference to fallout from the flu and estimates that the industry has lost more than $80 million in the month following the flu outbreak.

Though there is no hard evidence yet that American consumers have refrained from buying pork because of flu fears, at one point, retailers stopped ordering pork, anticipating a slowdown in demand.

"You’re in this long line of cars," explained Meyer. "The front car is the consumer, and the consumer tapped his brakes. Then the retailer slammed his brakes and everybody behind him had to slow down dramatically to avoid hitting him."

Analysts say that the slowdown has yet to force producers out of business, but that many are at risk.

Much of the pork in this country is produced for giant pork corporations, such as Smithfield, which contracts with farmers to raise the animals for a set amount. The farmer owns the barn and all the equipment, but not the hogs.

"A contract grower doesn’t have any market risk," Meyer said. "They have strategic risk if the company that owns the pigs goes out of business."

Those at greatest risk, analysts say, are producers who own their own animals and also have to pay a premium for grain. Economies of scale don’t help. "Having more hogs isn’t an advantage," Plain said. "You just lose money faster."

The most advantageously positioned pork producers are those who grow their own grain, analysts say. "The hog farmers in the best shape are the diversified guys who raise their own feed," Plain said.

That’s a good scenario for the Rehmeiers, who grow about half their grain and have weathered even leaner times, notably the late 1990s when hogs were selling for $30. "It’s a cycle," Rehmeier said. "When we start getting into the barbecue season, that’s our pick-up time."

Some analysts, however, aren’t as sanguine.

"We have so many farms in dire financial straits, and they were really counting on positive cash flows this summer," said Meyer, noting that grain prices are already heading up. "They’re not going to get it, even if we get a summertime peak."

And then flu season awaits.

"What’s going to happen when winter comes?" Plain said. "Are we going to see more of the disease? Is it going to become more virulent? If it comes back in the fall worse than it’s been, certainly we’re going to be dealing with this all over again."

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