Leaving behind a year of bruising legislative battles, President Barack Obama enters his fourth year in office having calculated that he no longer needs Congress to promote his agenda and may even benefit in his re-election campaign if lawmakers accomplish little in 2012.
Absent any major policy pushes, much of the year will focus on winning a second term. The president will keep up a robust domestic travel schedule and aggressive campaign fundraising and use executive action to try to boost the economy.
Partisan, down-to-the-wire fights over allowing the nation to take on more debt and sharply reducing government spending defined 2011. In the new year, there are almost no must-do pieces of legislation facing the president and Congress.
The one exception is the looming debate on a full-year extension of a cut in the Social Security payroll tax rate from 6.2 percent to 4.2 percent. Democrats and Republicans are divided over how to put in place that extension.
The White House believes GOP lawmakers boxed themselves in during the pre-Christmas debate on the tax break and will be hard-pressed to back off their own assertions that it should continue through the end of 2012.
Once that debate is over, the White House says, Obama’s political fate will no longer be tied to Washington.
“Now that he’s sort of free from having to put out these fires, the president will have a larger playing field. If that includes Congress, all the better,” said Josh Earnest, White House deputy press secretary. But, he added, “that’s no longer a requirement.”
Aides say the president will not turn his back on Congress completely in the new year. He is expected to once again push lawmakers to pass elements of his jobs bill that were blocked by Republicans last fall.
If those efforts fail, the White House says, Obama’s re-election year will focus almost exclusively on executive action.
Earnest said Obama will come out with at least two or three directives per week, continuing the “We Can’t Wait” campaign the administration began this fall, and try to define Republicans in Congress as gridlocked and dysfunctional.
Obama’s election year retreat from legislative fights means this term will end without significant progress on two of his 2008 campaign promises, an immigration overhaul and closing the military prison for terrorist suspects at Guantanamo Bay, Cuba.
Presidential directives probably won’t make a big dent in the nation’s 8.6 percent unemployment rate or lead to significant improvements in the economy. That’s the chief concern for many voters and the issue on which Republican candidates are most likely to criticize Obama.
In focusing on executive actions rather than ambitious legislation, the president risks appearing to be putting election-year strategy ahead of economic action at a time when millions of Americans are still out of work.
“Americans expect their elected leaders to work together to boost job creation, even in an election year,” said Brendan Buck, a spokesman for House Speaker John Boehner, R-Ohio.
Still, Obama and his advisers are beginning 2012 with a renewed sense of confidence, buoyed by a series of polls that show the president’s approval rating climbing as Congress becomes increasingly unpopular.
They believe his victory over Republicans in the payroll tax debate has boosted his credentials as a fighter for the middle class, a theme he will look to seize on in his Jan. 24 State of the Union address.
Obama’s campaign-driven, domestic-travel schedule starts in Cleveland on Wednesday, the day after GOP presidential hopefuls square off in the Iowa caucuses. He will also keep up an aggressive re-election fundraising schedule, with events already lined up in Chicago on Jan. 11.
Campaign officials say Obama will fully engage in the re-election campaign once the Republicans pick their nominee. He will focus almost exclusively on campaigning after the late summer Democratic National Convention, barring unexpected developments at home or abroad.
Among the issues that could disrupt Obama’s re-election plans: further economic turmoil in Europe, instability in North Korea following its leadership transition and threats from Iran.
The president’s signature legislative accomplishment will also come under greater scrutiny in the new year, when a critical part of his health care overhaul is debated before the Supreme Court.
Obama’s foreign travel next year will be limited mainly to the summits and international gatherings every U.S. president traditionally attends. He’s expected to travel to South Korea in March for a nuclear security summit and to Colombia in April for the Summit of the Americas. He’s also likely to visit Mexico in June for the G-20 economic summit.
Two other major international gatherings _ the NATO summit and the G-8 economic meeting _ will be held in Chicago, on home turf.
Four new types of American shoppers have emerged this holiday season.
There’s the bargain hunter who times deals. The midnight buyer who stays up late for discounts. The returner who gets buyer’s remorse. And the “me” shopper who self-gifts.
It’s the latest shift by consumers in the fourth year of a weak U.S. economy. Shoppers are expected to spend $469.1 billion during the holiday shopping season that runs from November through December. While it won’t be known just how much Americans spent until the season ends on Saturday, it’s already clear they are shopping differently than they have in years past.
“We’re seeing different types of buying behavior in a new economic reality,” says C. Britt Beemer, chairman of America’s Research Group.
THE BARGAIN TIMER
Cost-conscious shoppers haven’t just been looking for bargains this season. They’ve also been more deliberate about when to find those deals. Many believe the biggest bargains come at the beginning and end of the season, which has created a kind of “dumbbell effect” in sales.
For the week ended on Nov. 26, which included the traditional start of the holiday shopping season on the day after Thanksgiving, stores had the biggest sales surge compared with the prior week since 1993, according to the International Council of Shopping Centers-Goldman Sachs Weekly Chain Stores Sales Index. The cumulative two-week-sales drop-off that followed marked the biggest percentage decline since 2000. Then, stores had another surge in the final days, as retailers stepped up their promotions again.
“Shoppers are budgeting their money and time,” says Paco Underhill, whose company, Envirosell, studies how consumers behave in stores. “They’re focused on being opportunistic bargain shopping vultures.”
Kalilah Middleton, 30, of Queens, is one of them. Starting late on Thanksgiving night, she spent five hours and $400 at Wal-Mart and Target. She bought a TV and clothing at 50 percent off. Then, she waited until Christmas Eve to shop again because she believed she’d get better deals later in the season.
“This is when you get the best deals,” says Middleton, an office manager, about her holiday shopping.
Going forward, shoppers are expecting even bigger discounts. According to America’s Research Group research firm, 34 percent of shoppers say they want to see post-Christmas discounts of about 70 to 80 percent, up from 20 percent last year.
THE MIDNIGHT BUYER
Used to be, bargain shoppers would wake up at the crack of dawn to take advantage of big discounts on Black Friday, the day after Thanksgiving. This year, some shoppers instead stayed up late on Thanksgiving night to get deals.
This behavior was in large part due to retailers’ efforts to outdo each other during the traditional start to the holiday shopping season. Stores like Macy’s, Best Buy and Target for the first time opened at midnight on Thanksgiving night, offering deals that once were reserved for the next day.
Twenty-four percent of Black Friday shoppers were at stores at midnight, according to a poll by the National Retail Federation, the industry’s biggest trade group. That’s up from 9.5 percent the year before when only a few stores were open during that time.
Of those shopping at midnight on Black Friday, 37 percent were ages 18 to 34. That percentage was higher than among 35- to 54-year-olds, of whom 23.5 percent were in stores by midnight.
Macy’s, for one, drew 10,000 people to its midnight opening. Terry Lundgren, Macy’s CEO, says many of them were young people who turned out for the Justin Bieber $65 gift sets and discounted fashions.
Anika Ruud, 15, of Boca Raton, Fla., went out with her four cousins to Macy’s at midnight and then shopped at Target until 2:30 a.m. She picked up two bras at Macy’s for $10. Then, she and her cousins went home to bed.
“It’s always been inconvenient,” Ruud says of the traditional 4 a.m. Black Friday openings of years past. “No one likes to wake up early.”
THE RETURNER
Shoppers who were lured into stores by bargains gleefully loaded up on everything from discounted tablet computers to clothing early in the holiday season. But soon after, many of them were rushing back to return the items they bought.
For instance, Elizabeth Yamada, 55, of Fort Lee, N.J., says she got caught up with the shopping frenzy over the Thanksgiving weekend and picked up a $350 coat that was marked down more than 50 percent off at Macy’s. She ended up returning the item one week later.
“It was nice, but I didn’t need it,” says Yamada, who works part-time as a waitress and a hospital aide. “It was impulsive shopping. But I am doing more reflecting.”
It’s all about buyer’s remorse.
For every dollar stores take in this holiday season, it’s expected they will have to give back 9.9 cents in returns, up from 9.8 last year, according to the a survey of 110 retailers the NRF. It would be the highest return rate since the recession. In better economic times, it’s about 7 cents.
Stores have themselves to blame for the higher returns. They lured shoppers in with deals of up to 60 percent off as early as October. Because of the deals, shoppers spent more than they normally would. And retailers’ return policies have been more lax since 2008, with some sweetening their policies even more this year.
THE “ME” SHOPPER
One for you; one for me.
After scrimping on themselves during the recession, Americans turned to shopping for themselves. It’s a trend that started last year but became more prevalent this season.
According to the NRF, spending for non-gift items will increase by 16 percent this holiday season to $130.43 per person. That’s the highest number recorded since it started tracking it in 2004.
“This season, the consumer put herself ahead of the giving,” says Marshal Cohen, chief industry analyst with market research firm The NPD Group.
Betty Thomas, a health care coordinator at a hospital in Raleigh, N.C., says she spent $1,700 on a ring and bracelet for herself and a rug for her home during the holiday season. That’s up dramatically from the $200 she spent last year.
“I have been putting other people first,” Thomas says. “I definitely felt I earned it.”
Stores have been encouraging such self-gifting.
AnnTaylor’s campaign “Perfect Presents: One for you. One for her” highlighted merchandise like brightly colored sweaters. Brookstone’s print ads urged shoppers to get accessories for their iPads and other electronics with the words: “gifts for your gadgets.” And Shopittome.com, an online site that alerts consumers to clothing sales they’re interested in, launched “Treat Yourself Tuesday” after Thanksgiving weekend.
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Anne D’Innocenzio reported from New York.
Christina Rexrode in Raleigh, N.C. contributed to this report.
Follow AP retail coverage at http://www.twitter.com/AP–Retail.
Italian borrowing costs have dropped significantly in the latest market test of confidence in the country’s ability to manage its high debt.
Italy easily sold euro7 billion ($9.4 billion) in 12-month bonds on Monday at an interest rate of 5.92 percent, down from last month’s record of 6.087 percent.
The sale was held on the second “bond day” sponsored by the Italian Banker’s Association, which allowed private buyers to snap up public debt without the usual commission. Analysts said the move _ aimed at engendering confidence in the nation’s debt _ would help retail sales.
Also Monday, union leaders are calling for a three-hour strike to protest austerity measures that Premier Mario Monti hopes will save the country from financial ruin.
THIS IS A BREAKING NEWS UPDATE. Check back soon for further information. AP’s earlier story is below.
ROME (AP) _ Union leaders in Italy are calling on workers to stage a three-hour strike to protest austerity measures that Premier Mario Monti hopes will save the country from financial ruin.
The union leaders say the measures hit too hard at pensioners and workers and not hard enough at the wealthy. Besides Monday’s strike, an afternoon rally is to be held outside Parliament, which is expected to pass the measures by Christmas.
Labor Minister Elsa Fornero said Sunday that some pension reforms might be softened, but that overall spending cuts must remain for the country to regain credibility on financial markets. An auction of 12-month bonds will test that credibility.
The strike forced Milan’s La Scala opera house to cancel a performance. Metalworkers were among those expected to strike.
TORONTO
Workers continued to stash more money in their 401(k) plans in the third quarter, but the stock market’s sharp decline only left them further behind in reaching their savings goals.
The average balance in Fidelity Investments’ plans dropped nearly 12 percent, falling to $64,300 by the end of September from $72,700 three months earlier, the company said Wednesday.
That setback snapped four consecutive quarters of increases, and even put investors behind where they stood a year ago. Their balances were down 2 percent compared with September of last year, according to Fidelity, the largest workplace savings plan provider, with 11.7 million participants.
Blame the 14 percent decline in the Standard & Poor’s 500 index in the third quarter. Investors worried about the European debt crisis and slow economic growth at home, leading to the stock market’s worst quarterly loss since the financial crisis in late 2008.
Workers’ 401(k)s are typically invested in bonds along with stocks to help reduce volatility. Third-quarter investment gains for bonds helped offset some of the stock market’s decline, preventing deeper damage to account balances.
The damage also was eased because workers set aside more from their paychecks to stash in 401(k)s, while employers increased matching contributions.
Fidelity said 84 percent of plan participants contributed over the past 12 months, the highest level in more than two years. Their average contribution was $5,890, setting a record, and up $200 from the same period a year earlier. Employers contributed an average $3,320, an increase of $220.
Over the past 10 years, about two-thirds of annual increases in account balances have been due to workers’ added contributions and company matches, with one-third the result of investment returns, said Beth McHugh, Fidelity’s vice president of market insights.
There are several reasons why changes in account balances don’t match the performance of market indexes. Results depend on the performance of the specific funds an investor holds. Plus, participants in 401(k)s also pay investment fees, which chip away at returns. Investment earnings and contributions can grow tax-free in employer-sponsored 401(k)s, which the government established to encourage saving for retirement.
Balances have risen eight of the 10 quarters since early 2009, when the stock market meltdown reduced the average to $46,200.
Workers who have stayed in the market haven’t been able to rely on investment gains to build up 401(k) savings, because stocks remain about 23 percent below their historic peak in October 2007. Instead, they’ve had to rely on contributions from themselves, and their employers.
Fidelity’s 401(k) participants appear to recognize that, McHugh said. Each quarter for the past two and half years, more workers have increased their contributions than cut them.
However, Fidelity reported a recent slight increase in hardship withdrawals from 401(k)s, reflecting the financial stress many workers face as the economic recovery struggles to find momentum. About 2.3 percent took hardship withdrawals over the 12 months ended Sept. 30. In the latest 12-month period, workers making hardship withdrawals removed an average $5,800.
“People are still looking at their retirement accounts as a source of funds,” McHugh said. “We recommend people look at it as a last resort.”
The major reason? Hardship withdrawals can subject the participants to taxes and possible early withdrawal penalties, if they occur before age 59 1/2. Withdrawals also leave less money in an account to grow as a result of potential market gains and compounding, setting an investor back further in reaching their goals.
The majority owner of the Maple Leafs says it rejected
Actress Sienna Miller told a media ethics inquiry Thursday that she was left paranoid and scared by years of relentless tabloid pursuit that ranged from paparazzi outside her house to the hacking of her mobile phone.
Miller said the surveillance, and a stream of personal stories about her in the tabloids, led her to accuse friends and family of leaking information to the media. In fact, her cell phone voice mails had been hacked at Rupert Murdoch’s News of the World tabloid.
Miller, 29, became a tabloid staple when she dated fellow actor Jude Law. She said the constant scrutiny left her feeling “very violated and very paranoid and anxious, constantly.”
“I felt like I was living in some sort of video game,” she said.
She called the paparazzi focus on her terrifying.
“For a number of years I was relentlessly pursued by 10 to 15 men, almost daily,” she said. “Spat at, verbally abused.
“I would often find myself, at the age of 21, at midnight, running down a dark street on my own with 10 men chasing me. And the fact they had cameras in their hands made that legal.”
Miller, the star of “Layer Cake” and “Alfie,” was one of the first celebrities to take the News of the World to court over illegal eavesdropping. In May, the newspaper agreed to pay her 100,000 pounds ($160,000) to settle claims her phone had been hacked.
The newspaper’s parent company now faces dozens of lawsuits from alleged hacking victims.
Miller, who looked confident as she gave evidence at London’s Royal Courts of Justice, said challenging Murdoch’s media conglomerate had been a difficult decision.
“I was very nervous about taking on an empire that was richer and far more powerful than I will ever be,” she said. “It was very daunting.”
“Harry Potter” author J.K. Rowling, who has campaigned to keep her children out of the media glare, is due to give evidence later Thursday about media intrusion.
Prime Minister David Cameron set up the inquiry amid a still-unfolding scandal over illegal eavesdropping by the Murdoch-owned tabloid. Murdoch closed down the News of the World in July after evidence emerged that it had illegally accessed the mobile phone voice mails of celebrities, politicians and even crime victims in its search of scoops.
More than a dozen News of the World journalists and editors have been arrested over allegations of illegal eavesdropping, and the scandal has also claimed the jobs of two top London police officers, Cameron’s media adviser and several senior Murdoch executives.
The inquiry, led by Judge Brian Leveson, plans to issue a report next year and could recommend major changes to media regulation in Britain.
Miller took the stand after another witness was allowed to give evidence in private. The courtroom was cleared of the press as the witness, identified only as HJK, testified about suffering intrusions while in a relationship with a well-known figure, whose identity was also kept secret.
Former Formula One boss Max Mosley, who has campaigned for a privacy law since his interest in sadomasochistic sex was exposed in the News of the World, broadened the focus in testimony Thursday, discussing the difficulty of squashing malicious stories in the Internet age.
Mosley successfully sued the News of the World over a 2008 story headlined “Formula One boss has sick Nazi orgy with five hookers.” Mosley has acknowledged the orgy, but argued that the story _ obtained with a hidden camera _ was an “outrageous” invasion of privacy. He said the Nazi allegation was damaging and “completely untrue.”
Mosley said he has had stories about the incident removed from 193 websites around the world, and is currently taking legal action “in 22 or 23 different countries,” including proceedings against search engine Google in France and Germany.
“The fundamental thing is that Google could stop this appearing but they don’t or won’t as a matter of principle,” he said. “The really dangerous things are the search engines.”
“You work all your life to try and achieve something or do something useful,” Mosley added. “And suddenly something like this happens and that’s what you’re remembered for.”
High-profile witnesses still to come include CNN celebrity interviewer Piers Morgan, who has denied using phone hacking while he was editor of the Daily Mirror newspaper.
The hearings have heard allegations of media malpractice and intrusion that extend far beyond the News of the World.
Witnesses have included celebrities like actor Hugh Grant and ordinary people pursued in times of grief, including the parents of murdered 13-year-old Milly Dowler, whose voice mails were accessed by the News of the World after she disappeared in 2002.
Her parents said the hacking gave them false hope their daughter was still alive during the investigation into her disappearance.
On Wednesday, the parents of missing child Madeleine McCann said they were left distraught by false stories and the publication of private information by the tabloid press.
Kate and Gerry McCann told the inquiry they felt powerless in the face of stories, based on concocted evidence, suggesting they had killed their daughter. Madeleine had vanished when she was three during the British family’s 2007 vacation in Portugal.
Shares in Spain’s Repsol energy company are soaring after the company announced it has made a major new shale oil find in Argentina that boosts by a third its total amount of recoverable oil.
Repsol YPF SA’s shares were up 5.4 percent in midday trading Tuesday in Madrid.
The company said the discovery includes 927 million barrels of recoverable resources, 741 million of which is oil.
Argentine President Cristina Fernandez in May announced a huge shale oil deposit in Neuquen province, but less than 10 percent of it had been explored at the time.
Repsol owns the rights to 12,000 square kilometers (4,633 sq. miles) of the 30,000 square kilometer (11,583 sq. mile) basin. Like other oil companies, it has only recently begun to search them.
Floodwaters have reached the northern edge of central Bangkok and are threatening the Thai capital’s subway system.
The water that has been creeping through northern Bangkok for more than week flooded Lad Phrao intersection on Friday. The area is home to office towers, condominiums and a major shopping mall and is not far from the famed Chatuchak Weekend Market.
Local media reported the water depth at 15 inches (40 centimeters).
Officials from Bangkok’s subway system say they are closely monitoring three stations in the area, though all remain open.
The government has asked residents to evacuate eight of the city’s 50 districts because of the flooding. It has killed more than 400 people in Thailand since late July.
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