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Main Street frustration: ‘Everything is going to banks’

Sunday, 31. January 2010 von Free wind

In his State of the Union speech Wednesday night, President Obama touted a slew of federal initiatives aimed at stimulating small business hiring and growth. Again.

Small companies employ around half of America’s workers and drive most of the country’s job growth. Obama talks frequently in his speeches about the vital role small companies play, and his administration has launched several efforts to bolster struggling Main Street businesses. But most of the president’s small business proposals remain in limbo, caught in bureaucratic logjams and the Great Black Hole of Congress.

A year ago, Obama set the stage during his first major economic speech to Congress. "I will not spend a single penny for the purpose of rewarding a single Wall Street executive, but I will do whatever it takes to help the small business that can’t pay its workers or the family that has saved and still can’t get a mortgage," Obama said in February. "That’s what this is about. It’s not about helping banks; it’s about helping people."

But small business owners across the nation say they feel left out of the stimulus and recovery action.

"Basically, it seems to me that Washington’s efforts have been to help Wall Street, not Main Street," said Kim Griebling, president of Custom Flag Company in Westminster, Colo. Griebling and her father bought the company in 1998 and now employ a staff of eight. As the economy deteriorated, so did the demand for flags.

Griebling applied in September for an America’s Recovery Capital (ARC) loan, an emergency financing program created as part of February’s stimulus bill. The program offers qualifying business owners a small, government-backed loan on very attractive terms, but those trying to land ARC loans face a gauntlet of administrative obstacles. While bailed-out financial giants like AIG got financing fast from Washington, business owners wait months.

"People don’t realize that $35,000 for a small business makes a huge difference. I am on the verge of possibly having to lay off people," said Griebling. Her loan was approved in December, but she hasn’t received the money yet — and her patience is wearing thin.

"I definitely pay attention, but I would say I am more skeptical," she says of politicians’ talk of helping small companies like hers.

Geoffrey Zeamer, the owner of scientific instrument maker Abbess Instruments in Holliston, Mass., also feels that small companies are being overlooked.

"I listen very carefully and on a daily basis as to what is going on, and I have found the last year extremely disheartening because everything is going to banks," Zeamer said.

Zeamer is an engineer who has owned his 17-employee company since 1982. He thinks the government got it backward by funneling money to banks to save the economy.

"If the government really wanted to stimulate business, then you give out orders. You order more planes, trains, you buy more bridges. If you give banks money, they look out and say, ‘nobody has any orders, we are not going lend out,’" said Zeamer. "That seems to have escaped them. I think it’s Basic Economics 101."

Here’s a rundown on where President Obama’s small business proposals from throughout the past year currently stand:

Tax credits for jobs: The government’s economists estimate that small businesses have created 65% of America’s new jobs over the past 15 years. In December, Obama delivered a speech at the Brookings Institution in which he endorsed tax breaks to encourage small businesses to hire.

But there’s a blizzard of competing proposals for what form those incentives should take, from a temporary payroll tax holiday to per-worker tax credits for new hires, and none have yet gained momentum in Congress.

In the same speech, Obama backed a trifecta of tax cuts intended to spur small business investment and capital spending. Congress hasn’t yet taken significant action on any of them.

TARP for community banks: Small businesses are still struggling to access the capital they need for their day-to-day operations.

"When you talk to small business owners in places like Allentown, Pennsylvania or Elyria, Ohio, you find out that even though banks on Wall Street are lending again, they are mostly lending to bigger companies," Obama said Wednesday. "Financing remains difficult for small business owners across the country."

In October, the President proposed a collaboration between the Treasury Department and the Small Business Administration to make capital cheaper for community banks that commit to increasing their small business lending.

Under the proposed plan, banks with less than $1 billion in assets would be able to borrow money from the government at a 3% dividend rate. That’s a discount on the 5% rate the Treasury currently offers borrowers through its Capital Purchase Program, a TARP (Troubled Asset Relief Program) initiative.

Three months later, the government is still drafting guidelines for the initiative.

Obama invoked the plan in Wednesday’s speech.

"I’m proposing that we take $30 billion of the money Wall Street banks have repaid and use it to help community banks give small businesses the credit they need to stay afloat," he said.

Loan limits: In the same October speech, Obama also threw his support behind Congressional efforts to raise the ceiling on SBA loans. Currently, the maximum loan size available under the SBA’s major lending programs is $2 million. Policymakers would like to lift that limit to $5 million.

Both houses of Congress have considered the measure, but they’ve failed to agree on legislation to enact it into law.

Bigger incentives for loans: Amid a slew of stalled initiatives, one program has seen success.

SBA-backed loans represent a tiny portion of the overall small business lending landscape, but they’re a vital lifeline for many new and growing companies. Last year, the SBA’s loan volume plunged.

February’s Recovery Act set aside a $375 million funding pool to temporarily eliminate fees for a SBA loans and increase the portion of each loan that the government guarantees, up to 90%. That move proved so popular that the money allocated for it ran out around Thanksgiving. Just before Christmas, Congress appropriated another $125 million to keep the incentives running.

The data shows that lending has rebounded from last year’s lows. In the three months ended Dec. 31, the SBA’s 7(a) program processed more than 12,000 loans totaling $3.8 billion. That’s a sharp pickup from the 9,070 loans, totaling $1.9 billion, the agency backed a year earlier. 

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Midtown Manhattan Office Rents Decline 33% in 2009

Wednesday, 30. December 2009 von Free wind

Midtown Manhattan office rents fell 33 percent in 2009 as New York’s financial industry cut staff and relinquished space, commercial property broker FirstService Williams said in a report.

Rents in the nation’s most expensive office district dropped to $59.31 a square foot in the fourth quarter and are down almost 50 percent when concessions including temporary free rent are included, the New York-based broker said today.

Financial companies occupy more New York office space than any other non-governmental employer. They cut 25,200 local jobs in the 12 months through November, helping push the city’s unemployment rate to 10 percent, according to the New York State Department of Labor.

“Employment is not going to trend up with any alacrity,” FirstService Williams Executive Chairman Robert Freedman said in an interview. “We’re going to see a very, very modest uptick in demand” for offices.

The percentage of available space in Midtown climbed to 14.9 percent from 11.9 percent a year ago, FirstService Williams said. The rate applies to office space between 34th Street and Central Park in Manhattan.

The decline in neighborhood rents showed signs of leveling off as more than 1 million square feet along Park Avenue, Fifth Avenue and Avenue of the Americas were leased in the fourth quarter, FirstService said. Landlords stopped increasing incentives to lure tenants, the broker said.

Wall Street Area

Downtown rents declined 22 percent in 2009 to $38.60 a square foot and availability jumped to 13 percent from 10.5 percent at the end of 2008. Most of the available space downtown was added in the fourth quarter.

Between 8 percent and 10 percent of downtown leases signed in 2009 were for financial tenants, according to FirstService’s preliminary numbers. About 30 percent of the New York City office market is already occupied by the industry.

“With the financial sector still a major driving force in the downtown market, recovery in lower Manhattan may be slower than expected,” Freedman said.

In Manhattan’s Midtown South area, roughly located between 34th and Canal streets, office availability climb to 11.7 percent from 8.5 percent at the end of last year. Asking rents averaged $39.73 a square foot, down 28 percent from a year ago.

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Loans at 0.57% to Family Members Could Save Millions on Taxes

Friday, 25. December 2009 von Free wind

Estate planner Richard Behrendt helped his client make $5 million loans to each of his children this year, avoiding gift taxes of 45 percent and saving the kids as much as $837,000 apiece in interest.

Rates for so-called intra-family loans have declined as much as 53 percent since 2008. “The timing of it was clearly tied to the rock bottom of these rates,” said Behrendt, who works for Robert W. Baird & Co., based in Milwaukee, Wisconsin.

The loans may be the perfect holiday gift to help relatives this year, according to Carol Kroch, head of wealth and financial planning at Wilmington, Delaware-based Wilmington Trust. For wealthy taxpayers, they can be used for estate planning purposes, since gains earned will be free of estate and gift taxes.

That’s because low interest rates and depressed asset values mean there’s a greater possibility that investments purchased with an intra-family loan, such as stock, will appreciate more than the loan’s cost, Kroch said.

The rate for an intra-family loan made in January 2010 for less than three years is 0.57 percent. The rate is 2.45 percent for a loan of three years to nine years and 4.11 percent for a loan of nine years or more, according to the Internal Revenue Service, which sets the rates monthly. That compares with an average rate of 10.55 percent for a personal bank loan in the New York metro area and 12.51 percent for a credit-union loan, based on data from Bankrate.com.

“The chances are they are going to go up, the only question is how fast or how soon,” said Bill Fleming, managing director of New York-based PricewaterhouseCoopers’s Private Company Services Group, referring to rates for intra-family loans.

Tax Savings

Behrendt’s client, who has a net worth of $100 million, loaned each of his three children $5 million for nine years. The children invested the money in a balanced portfolio seeking at least a 5 percent return, said Behrendt, a former estate tax attorney for the IRS.

Any amount above the 1.65 interest rate, which was the February rate, should pass to the client’s children free of estate and gift taxes, he said. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index has increased 36 percent since February as of yesterday.

The borrowers also saved on interest costs because of the low rates. Each will owe $82,500 in interest annually, compared with $175,500 if the loan had been made in February 2008 when the rate was 3.51 percent.

Current federal law taxes estates exceeding $3.5 million for an individual or $7 million for a married couple at as much as 45 percent. Any gift to an individual of more than $13,000 annually may also be taxed as much as 45 percent with a $1 million lifetime exclusion per donor, according to the IRS.

Estate Tax

The estate tax is scheduled to expire for a year on Jan. 1 under the provisions of a tax-cut bill enacted in 2001. It comes back in 2011, taxing estates valued at more than $1 million as much as 55 percent. Senate Finance Committee Chairman Max Baucus, Democrat of Montana, has vowed to extend the estate tax in 2010 retroactively.

Lenders who are subject to the estate tax can use the loans to reduce the value of their estates because the appreciation of any investment made with the loan above the IRS rate accrues outside of the lender’s estate, said Larry Richman, chair of private wealth services at Neal, Gerber & Eisenberg LLP in Chicago.

Taxpayers with family businesses may also want to consider intra-family loans to help with the sale of the business to family members, according to David Kron, a partner in the Fort Lauderdale office of law firm Ruden McClosky.

Parents can loan their children money to buy the business and the children can repay using profits from the firm. The future appreciation and any income of the business beyond the loan amount are then considered part of the children’s, not the parents’, estate, Kron said.

‘Low-Tech’ Tool

Intra-family loans are a “low-tech” way to give money to family members because they’re easy to set up and are appropriate for anyone regardless of net worth, said Deborah L. Jacobs, author of “Estate Planning Smarts: A Practical, User- Friendly, Action-Oriented Guide,” which was published this month.

Family members should be aware the loans must be repaid in full with interest at the rate specified by the IRS. If the borrower doesn’t repay, it may be considered a gift subject to the gift tax, said Jacobs, who is based in New York.

Lenders should also consider the income tax they’ll owe on the interest received with repayment of the loan, said Kron.

‘Thanksgiving Firecracker’

Loaning money to family members may create relationship issues, said Dan Deighan of Melbourne, Florida-based Deighan Financial Advisors Inc.

“It’s like throwing a firecracker on the Thanksgiving dinner table when you bring money issues into the family dynamic,” Deighan said.

Borrowers can get “sloppy with repayments,” which is why setting up an automatic bank transfer for payments is recommended, said Fleming of PricewaterhouseCoopers.

Don Albritton, a 61-year-old executive in Longwood, Florida, gave his son $260,000 to buy a house through a 30-year intra-family loan four years ago. Albritton ended up taking the house back after his son was unable to sell it without taking a loss. Home prices have declined 17 percent since January 2005, according to the S&P/Case-Shiller index for 20 metropolitan areas.

“I’m not discouraged,” Albritton said. “I’m getting ready to make him another loan now.”

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U.K. Consumer Confidence Falls, Hurting Brown Election Outlook

Sunday, 20. December 2009 von Free wind

U.K. consumer confidence fell for a second month in December, complicating Prime Minister Gordon Brown’s efforts to revive his popularity before next year’s election, market researcher GfK NOP said.

An index of consumer sentiment dropped to minus 19 from minus 17 the previous month, GfK NOP said in an e-mailed statement today in London. A gauge of expectations for the economy over the next year fell nine points to minus six.

“This must be concerning for the government,” Nick Moon, an analyst at GfK, said in the statement. “What will be particularly worrying for Gordon Brown is that the index for the state of the economy, which had crept into positive territory, has fallen by a substantial nine points.”

Brown, who must call an election by June, is struggling to claw back the support lost to the opposition Conservatives during the financial crisis. Bank of England policy maker Kate Barker said Dec. 15 an economic recovery will be “bumpy,” and data released yesterday showed British retail sales unexpectedly fell in November for the first time in six months.

Retail sales growth will “fizzle out” next month, and trading conditions across the industry are likely to “remain challenging” in 2010, the Confederation of British Industry said yesterday instant personal loans guaranteed.

A gauge of the economy’s performance over the past year slipped two points to minus 61. A measure of consumers’ willingness to buy big items such as refrigerators and furniture rose three points to minus 16, GfK said.

Housing Recovery?

British consumers are still adapting to a recession that sparked the country’s worst housing slump since the early 1990s and has led to 600,000 job losses, pushing the unemployment rate to 7.8 percent. Barker said she would be “surprised” if the recent pick up in property prices were sustained next year as unemployment threatens household finances.

The market researcher surveyed 2,004 people between Dec. 4 and Dec. 12 on behalf of the European Commission. The margin of error is estimated at two percentage points, the report said.

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Brookings Institution: Raleigh-Cary among 13 metros to add jobs in 3Q

Thursday, 17. December 2009 von Free wind

The Raleigh-Cary metro area was one of the few regions in the country to show job growth in the third quarter, signaling the area may be among the better performers pulling out of recession, according to a report released Tuesday by the Brookings Institution.

Unemployment in Raleigh-Cary was 8.6 percent in the third quarter, a 0.1 percent improvement compared to the second quarter. The modest growth is better than most of the top 100 metros evaluated by the Washington, D.C., think tank. Just 13 of the top 100 metros experienced job growth in the third quarter. The U.S. average for the top 100 metros was 9.6 percent unemployment, a 0.5 percent increase in unemployment in the third quarter compared to the second quarter.

Raleigh-Cary was also one of just 10 metro areas to show faster growth in jobs and gross metropolitan product in the third quarter compared to the second quarter, according to Brookings. Raleigh-Cary GMP increased by 1.1 percent in the third quarter compared to the second quarter instant payday loan.

Nationally, gross domestic product increased at a 2.8 percent annual rate in the third quarter. That was the first increase after four consecutive quarters of contraction. Brookings said the growth, along with other indicators such as increasing housing prices, are a sign that recovery is under way.

But Brookings cautioned that the recovery “seems fragile.”

“The output increase may have resulted largely from the replenishment of manufacturing inventories and from temporary federal policies: the ‘cash-for-clunkers’ program, the first-time home buyer tax credit, and the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act’s economic stimulus,” the report states. “As the effects of these policies recede, the recovery could slow or give way to yet another recession or a prolonged period of economic stagnation.”

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P-D owner cites stronger ad sales

Monday, 14. December 2009 von Free wind

Lee Enterprises Inc., owner of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, said Friday it had stronger advertising sales in November and expects declines in revenue to ease for the company’s fiscal first quarter ending Dec. 27.

"Based on trends through early December, we’re hopeful that the turnaround has begun," Mary Junck, chairman and CEO, said in a news release. "Although it’s premature to guess when year-over-year revenue comparisons will turn positive, we expect our aggressive cost reductions will enable meaningful earnings growth when they do."

Among the cost reductions were increases in premium cost-sharing for some participants in retiree medical plans and elimination of retiree health care coverage for other participants. Lee said these changes will reduce annual retiree medical costs beginning in 2010 and will cut benefit obligation liability by up to $30 million.

Lee said it expects operating revenue for the quarter ending Dec paydayloans. 27 to fall 14 percent to 15 percent compared to the same period in 2008. Revenue declined an average of 20 percent in the last three quarters of fiscal 2009.

The company also said that debt refinancing, adequate liquidity and improving business conditions allowed its accounting firm, KPMG LLP, to drop from this year’s annual report an explanatory paragraph in 2008’s annual report that raised doubt about Lee’s ability to continue as a going concern. Lee filed the 2009 report Friday with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

Lee, based in Davenport, Iowa, owns 49 newspapers and has a joint interest in four others. It also has online sites and nearly 300 specialty publications in 23 states.

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QVC reports 60% jump in sales

Monday, 30. November 2009 von Free wind

Television shopping giant QVC said Black Friday generated more than $32 million in orders - a 60 percent increase over last year’s sales.

That represents 765,000 units ordered in a 24-hour period for the shopping channel, which offers its own brand of holiday specials. Officials called its programming “the largest and most aggressive Black Friday event in the multimedia retailer’s 23-year history.” That meant lots of deals and much less talk.

QVC.com contributed 40 percent of the sales.

Top sellers included a Sylvania digital camcorder, Playhut Travel Lounger, Nintendo Wii, Olympus 5x zoom Camera.

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Obama Says Asia Trip Focused on Economy and Creating U.S. Jobs

Monday, 23. November 2009 von Free wind

President Barack Obama said he focused much of his recent week-long trip to Asia on exploring ways to increase U.S. exports and thereby create jobs.

Obama returned Nov. 19 from a trip to Japan, China and South Korea. In his weekly radio and Internet address, he said increased exports to those countries can help the U.S. recover from its highest unemployment rate in decades.

“Above all, I spoke with leaders in every nation I visited about what we can do to sustain this economic recovery and bring back jobs and prosperity for our people,” Obama said in the address, which was taped in Seoul. “Increasing our exports is one way to create new jobs and create new prosperity.”

The U.S. unemployment rate rose to 10.2 percent in October, the highest level since 1983. Obama said he will continue to focus “relentlessly” on creating new jobs.

The administration will host a jobs forum at the White House next month with business executives, economists, financial experts and representatives from labor unions to talk about government policies that can encourage job growth.

In today’s address, Obama said the administration won’t make any “ill-considered decisions” about spurring job growth because of the federal budget deficit, which reached a record $1.4 trillion in the fiscal year that ended Sept. 30.

Right Direction

Obama said the economy, which grew 3.5 percent in the third quarter, is moving in the right direction after government approval of a $787 billion stimulus package in February

“The steps we are taking are helping,” he said paydayloans. “And I will not let up until businesses start hiring again.”

Obama said his Asia trip was also marked by productive efforts to develop new clean-energy initiatives and progress in working with China to send a unified message to Iran and North Korea in opposition to the development of nuclear weapons.

In today’s Republican address, Senator Mike Crapo of Idaho said health-care legislation proposed by Senate Democratic leaders would increase insurance costs, taxes and government spending while reducing benefits.

“This is not true health-care reform and it is not what the American people want,” Crapo said.

The Senate is scheduled to take a rare weekend vote today on whether to begin debate on the $848 billion legislation, which is intended to cover 31 million uninsured Americans and curb medical costs.

Crapo said the measure would raise taxes by “nearly half- a-trillion dollars,” and cut hundreds of billions of dollars from Medicare, the government health-insurance program for the elderly and disabled.

Crapo said a better approach to health-care overhaul would be “step-by-step reforms” proposed by Republicans, such as letting consumers purchase insurance across state lines, allowing small businesses to pool together to purchase insurance for employees, and eliminating waste, fraud and abuse.

“These are the kinds of reform that make sense and would really make a difference for all Americans,” he said.

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U.S. Economy: Leading Index Signals Sustained Rebound

Friday, 20. November 2009 von Free wind

The U.S. economic recovery will extend into next year as manufacturing expands and the pace of firings abates, reports today indicated.

The Conference Board’s index of leading indicators, a gauge of the outlook for the next three to six months, rose 0.3 percent in October, preserving a string of gains that began in April. Other reports showed claims for jobless benefits held at a 10-month low and Philadelphia-area manufacturing accelerated.

The rally in stock prices, low short-term interest rates and slowing job losses that propelled the leading index signal consumer confidence and spending are likely to stabilize, limiting the risk the economy will retrench. The data supported Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner’s forecast today that the emerging expansion will be sustained into 2010.

“It’s very clear that the economy is now expanding, but I don’t see it being a vigorous expansion,” said Michael Moran, chief economist at Daiwa Securities America Inc. in New York, who correctly forecast the leading index. “We are seeing a gradual improvement, but the key word is ‘gradual.’”

Stocks extended a global drop as concern grew that the rally outpaced the prospects for economic growth and Bank of America Corp. downgraded chipmakers. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index fell 1.3 percent to close at 1,094.9, with Intel Corp. and Texas Instruments Inc. losing ground.

Economists forecast the leading indicators index would increase 0.4 percent, according to the median of 58 estimates in a Bloomberg News survey.

Geithner Forecast

“We expect continued growth in the fourth quarter and ahead in 2010,” Geithner said today in testimony before the Joint Economic Committee of Congress.

He urged Congress to pass a financial regulation overhaul intended to strengthen the banking system and guard against “market-driven excess,” to avoid a repeat of the worst crisis since the Great Depression. Congress is considering a plan that includes changes to oversight of large banks, consumer protection and derivatives.

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke last week said “significant economic challenges remain” due to a weak labor market and reduced bank lending.

The number of Americans filing claims for unemployment benefits held at 505,000 in the week ended Nov. 14, matching the prior week’s reading as the lowest since January. The number of people collecting unemployment insurance dropped in the prior week, while those getting extended payments jumped.

‘Glacial Pace’

“The labor market is improving, but at a glacial pace,” said Tom Porcelli, a senior economist at RBC Capital Markets in New York, who had forecast claims at 503,000 . “People are having a hard time finding a job as companies remain wary of the economic recovery.”

President Barack Obama on Nov. 6 signed into law a plan to extend jobless benefits, expand a tax credit for first-time homebuyers, and provide tax refunds to money-losing companies. The measure gives jobless people as many as 20 additional weeks of unemployment assistance.

The president has also announced plans to convene a jobs summit at the White House next month.

Manufacturing in the Philadelphia region expanded in November at the fastest pace in more than two years, reflecting gains in orders and sales, figures from the Fed Bank of Philadelphia also showed today.

Factory Rebound

The bank’s general economic index rose to 16.7 this month, exceeding the median forecast of economists surveyed and the highest level since June 2007, from 11.5 in October. Readings greater than zero signal growth.

Six of the 10 components in the leading index contributed to last month’s increase, led by the difference between short- and long-term borrowing costs, fewer jobless claims and higher equity prices. A longer factory workweek, a rise in money supply and an increase in factory orders for consumer goods also helped. Weaker consumer expectations, fewer building permits, shorter delivery times and a drop in orders for business equipment limited the advance.

Manufacturers that export to China and other emerging economies are among companies profiting from growth abroad. Caterpillar Inc., the world’s largest maker of bulldozers and excavators, posted third-quarter earnings that beat analysts’ estimates and issued a full-year forecast that exceeded the highest prediction.

“We are seeing encouraging signs that indicate a recovery may be under way,” Chief Executive Officer Jim Owens said in a statement Oct. 20. “When it comes, it can come quickly, and we, our dealers and our suppliers will be prepared.”

The world’s largest economy probably expanded at a 3 percent annual pace from October through December after growing at a 3.5 percent rate in the prior quarter, according to the median estimate of economists surveyed earlier this month. That followed a 3.8 percent contraction in the 12 months to June, the economy’s worst performance since the 1930s.

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Eager fans greet “Call of Duty” launch

Tuesday, 10. November 2009 von Free wind

Activision Blizzard Inc’s hugely anticipated “Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2″ video game went on sale early Tuesday morning, welcomed by eager fans who lined up hours in advance of the release.

The first-person shooter game is set to be one of the biggest and fastest-selling titles in history, challenging records set by blockbuster releases from the “Grand Theft Auto” series.

This despite a dicey economic climate that is pinching consumer spending. Video game industry revenue in the United States, the world’s largest market, is down 13 percent this year, according to industry tracker NPD.

But Call of Duty arrives amid high expectations and plenty of hype. Activision partnered with retailers including GameStop Corp and Best Buy Co for more than 10,000 midnight store openings in North America.

At the GameStop store near Union Square in New York City, around 80 mainly young people were lined up Monday night ahead of the launch, some for two hours.

“This is the only game I’m probably going to do this for,” said Paola Altamirano, 21, who was waiting in the queue. She said she planned to play Call of Duty against another friend online later that night.

With what Activision called a record level of preorders, there was little doubt about the strong demand for a game.

“Gamers are enthusiastic about picking this stuff up at midnight,” said Paul Swiderski, who works at the Union Square Gamestop online payday advance.

Analysts’ sales estimates for the $60 game range from 11-13 million units by the end of 2009. Call of Duty is likely to account for a sizable chunk of Activision’s profits in the fourth quarter, analysts say, so there is plenty at stake in the launch.

HARD-CORE AUDIENCE

The audience for the latest Call of Duty — the sixth installment in the franchise — is primarily younger men, the gaming demographic that makes up the core of the estimated $50 billion global industry.

John Paneto, 20, was lined up outside a Best Buy store in San Francisco with about 10 others at around 10 P.M. Monday. He said he played a number of the other games in the Call of Duty franchise.

“I’m going to be up all night playing it, until I crash,” he said.

Analysts say so-called hard-core gamers are unlikely to be dissuaded from buying a big-name title by economic concerns, as some casual gamers are.

But Call of Duty will have to turn in an impressive performance to top that of last year’s mega-hit from Take-Two Interactive Software Inc, “Grand Theft Auto IV.” The title sold 3.6 million units on the first day, and 6 million in its first week or more than $500 million in sales. 

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