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The U.S. economic recovery will extend into next year as manufacturing expands and the pace of firings abates, reports today indicated.

The Conference Board’s index of leading indicators, a gauge of the outlook for the next three to six months, rose 0.3 percent in October, preserving a string of gains that began in April. Other reports showed claims for jobless benefits held at a 10-month low and Philadelphia-area manufacturing accelerated.

The rally in stock prices, low short-term interest rates and slowing job losses that propelled the leading index signal consumer confidence and spending are likely to stabilize, limiting the risk the economy will retrench. The data supported Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner’s forecast today that the emerging expansion will be sustained into 2010.

“It’s very clear that the economy is now expanding, but I don’t see it being a vigorous expansion,” said Michael Moran, chief economist at Daiwa Securities America Inc. in New York, who correctly forecast the leading index. “We are seeing a gradual improvement, but the key word is ‘gradual.’”

Stocks extended a global drop as concern grew that the rally outpaced the prospects for economic growth and Bank of America Corp. downgraded chipmakers. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index fell 1.3 percent to close at 1,094.9, with Intel Corp. and Texas Instruments Inc. losing ground.

Economists forecast the leading indicators index would increase 0.4 percent, according to the median of 58 estimates in a Bloomberg News survey.

Geithner Forecast

“We expect continued growth in the fourth quarter and ahead in 2010,” Geithner said today in testimony before the Joint Economic Committee of Congress.

He urged Congress to pass a financial regulation overhaul intended to strengthen the banking system and guard against “market-driven excess,” to avoid a repeat of the worst crisis since the Great Depression. Congress is considering a plan that includes changes to oversight of large banks, consumer protection and derivatives.

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke last week said “significant economic challenges remain” due to a weak labor market and reduced bank lending.

The number of Americans filing claims for unemployment benefits held at 505,000 in the week ended Nov. 14, matching the prior week’s reading as the lowest since January. The number of people collecting unemployment insurance dropped in the prior week, while those getting extended payments jumped.

‘Glacial Pace’

“The labor market is improving, but at a glacial pace,” said Tom Porcelli, a senior economist at RBC Capital Markets in New York, who had forecast claims at 503,000 . “People are having a hard time finding a job as companies remain wary of the economic recovery.”

President Barack Obama on Nov. 6 signed into law a plan to extend jobless benefits, expand a tax credit for first-time homebuyers, and provide tax refunds to money-losing companies. The measure gives jobless people as many as 20 additional weeks of unemployment assistance.

The president has also announced plans to convene a jobs summit at the White House next month.

Manufacturing in the Philadelphia region expanded in November at the fastest pace in more than two years, reflecting gains in orders and sales, figures from the Fed Bank of Philadelphia also showed today.

Factory Rebound

The bank’s general economic index rose to 16.7 this month, exceeding the median forecast of economists surveyed and the highest level since June 2007, from 11.5 in October. Readings greater than zero signal growth.

Six of the 10 components in the leading index contributed to last month’s increase, led by the difference between short- and long-term borrowing costs, fewer jobless claims and higher equity prices. A longer factory workweek, a rise in money supply and an increase in factory orders for consumer goods also helped. Weaker consumer expectations, fewer building permits, shorter delivery times and a drop in orders for business equipment limited the advance.

Manufacturers that export to China and other emerging economies are among companies profiting from growth abroad. Caterpillar Inc., the world’s largest maker of bulldozers and excavators, posted third-quarter earnings that beat analysts’ estimates and issued a full-year forecast that exceeded the highest prediction.

“We are seeing encouraging signs that indicate a recovery may be under way,” Chief Executive Officer Jim Owens said in a statement Oct. 20. “When it comes, it can come quickly, and we, our dealers and our suppliers will be prepared.”

The world’s largest economy probably expanded at a 3 percent annual pace from October through December after growing at a 3.5 percent rate in the prior quarter, according to the median estimate of economists surveyed earlier this month. That followed a 3.8 percent contraction in the 12 months to June, the economy’s worst performance since the 1930s.

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